China Outlook in the Age of AI and the Industrial Supercycle
2026-11-10
This report argues that China is entering a “two-speed economy” in which exports and manufacturing support headline growth while domestic demand remains weak. It highlights a broader Asian industrial supercycle, rising AI-related capital spending, and China’s continued export strength despite trade barriers. The report also examines fiscal tightening, deleveraging, industrial 5.0, AI-driven productivity gains, and a gradual rebalancing path led by savings shifts and social welfare reform.
